What is the Butterfly Dreams banner drop rate?

At 0.25% a pull, you cannot plan on getting the Woven Wings of Wildwood outfit from luck. Every pull costs one Lightweave Ticket, and a ticket costs 38 Lumin Crystals, the premium currency. Tickets are also sold for real money, including in shop packs. Most of what a pull gives you is not a cosmetic. A bundle of 50 Sparkling Crystals, for example, comes up 8.45% of the time, far more often than any single item from the set.

What you can plan around is the Lightweave Fragments each pull builds up. They are the banner's pity currency, and the featured Forest of Butterfly Dreams outfit costs 3,000 Lightweave Fragments to buy outright. So the real question is not whether the 0.25% hits. It is whether you will pull enough to buy the outfit before the banner ends.

What softens the cost along the way

The progress track pays out as you go. Its first milestone nodes unlock every 10 draws, and reaching 20 Lightweave pulls gives you five free Lightweave Tickets. The set also includes a hairstyle, which is one of the cosmetic items the 0.25% rate applies to.

You do not lose anything by stopping short. Unspent Lightweave currency carries over to future cosmetic banners and their shops. If you have Glimmer, hold on to it. It has uses that may matter more than cosmetic draws.

Not settled: The game is unclear on whether cosmetic outfits like Woven Wings of Wildwood are gender-locked. One version has them coming in male and female variants that any character can wear. The other has premium outfits locked to gender, with separate male and female designs.